AGP Executive Report

EU Market Access: EU auditors started a two-week mission in Brazil to check poultry and honey compliance with tighter antimicrobial rules, after the bloc removed Brazil’s approval marks effective Sept. 3 unless guarantees are met. Trade Talks: Brazil and the U.S. will resume commercial dialogue via a virtual meeting on Aug. 31, as Lula and Trump agreed to restart negotiations amid tariff friction. Energy & Oil: Petrobras marked 20 years of operations at its pre-salt Tupi asset, reaching 4 billion BOE cumulative production, reinforcing the company’s pre-salt growth outlook. Offshore Services: Halliburton won an integrated appraisal contract from bp for the deepwater Bumerangue field offshore Brazil, using LOGIX automation and remote operations. Mining: Samarco aims to regain its spot as the world’s second-largest iron-ore pellet exporter by 2028, planning major investment to restore capacity. Agri-Food Pressure: Brazil’s meat import demand is rising globally, while EU scrutiny adds another layer of compliance risk for exporters. AI in Finance: Brazil’s banks plan nearly R$3 billion in AI, analytics and big data investment this year, alongside a big push into cloud and AI talent.

Rare-Earth Security Push: The U.S. Department of War announced a $750 million investment tied to Serra Verde’s Pela Ema mine in Brazil, backing a mine-to-magnet offtake aimed at securing dysprosium, terbium, neodymium and praseodymium for defense and clean-tech supply chains. Aviation Manufacturing: Embraer’s Phenom 300EV cleared a major milestone with triple certification from the FAA, EASA and Brazil’s ANAC, including Garmin Emergency Autoland—an upgrade that supports safer operations and broader market access. Agri-Finance Integrity: Serasa Experian says 17.4% of rural credit meant for soybean farming in Brazil may have been diverted to other crops, using satellite checks across 1.97 million hectares—raising pressure for tighter controls. Land Restoration Commitments: Brazil presented first land-degradation neutrality targets at COP17, aiming to restore 163,000 km² by 2030 through conservation, agroforestry and restoration programs. Trade & Food Logistics: Qatar Chamber and the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce explored deeper cooperation in agriculture, food security, halal products and logistics, including potential digital links to move Brazilian food into MENA. Business Finance: Brazil’s presidential campaigns are clashing over how to cut long-term interest rates—one side pushing Treasury bond buybacks, the other arguing for spending cuts.

Rare Earth Permitting in Minas Gerais: St George Mining started Brazil environmental licensing for its Araxá rare earths and niobium project, filing the EIA/RIMA to FEAM and entering the first step toward a Preliminary Licence, with construction targeted for 2H 2029 (subject to approvals). Critical Minerals Supply-Chain Push: The U.S. backs Brazil’s rare-earth push with a $750M Department of War investment tied to processing/offtake support for Serra Verde, underscoring how mining, refining and geopolitics are now moving together. Lithium Exploration Execution: Solis Minerals began diamond drilling at its Mandacaru lithium project in Brazil and is preparing additional work at its Cinto copper project in Peru—another sign juniors are getting funding back for drill-ready milestones. EV/Industrial Tech Signals: Brazilian programmers helped drive Chinese humanoid robots in the World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing, highlighting software talent as a growing exportable industrial capability. Aviation Finance: LATAM secured a ~$505M loan to add 11 aircraft (including Embraer E195-E2) with sustainability-linked terms, supporting fleet renewal and long-term financing access.

Rare Earth Security Deal: The U.S. Department of War agreed to pre-pay $750 million to buy rare earth magnets from Brazil’s Serra Verde project in Goiás, aiming to reduce reliance on China for neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Trade Talks Restart: Brazil’s development and foreign ministries will resume negotiations with the U.S. after Lula’s call with Trump, with tariffs tied to issues including deforestation, Pix, ethanol and forced labor claims. Industrial Policy Debate: A World Bank study reopens the case for industrial policy, saying tools must fit each country’s market size, institutions and fiscal room—relevant as Brazil’s New Brazilian Industry program faces distortion concerns. E-commerce Rules for Mercosur: Brazil enacted the Mercosur Electronic Commerce Agreement, cutting customs duties on cross-border e-transactions and adding data protection and cybersecurity cooperation. Electronics Compliance: CONAMA Resolution 516/2026 sets a “Brazilian RoHS” for hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment, with staged deadlines and mandatory registry. Energy & Oil Expansion: Petrobras is moving toward offshore exploration talks in Ghana, seeking eligibility to negotiate contracts for four blocks in the Keta basin. Cybercrime Risk: A Brazil fraud survey says social-engineering scams drive 40% of reported financial fraud, often via phones and Pix. Brazilian Manufacturing Exports: ABIMAQ reports machinery exports up 12.6% to $6.5bn in H1 2026, supported by trade promotion across Latin America and Asia. Automotive Update: Volkswagen unveiled the new Tukan pickup in Brazil, replacing the Saveiro, with sales planned for early 2027.

Green Industry & Energy Transition: China and Brazil are deepening green cooperation under Brazil’s “New Industry” push, with Chinese firms bringing energy-transition tech to support re-industrialization and sustainable development. Amazon Logistics Shock: Low water on the Rio Negro is forcing major carriers to add Manaus low-water surcharges of up to $1,900 per box, with contingency plans that could include rerouting and extra handling. Agri-Food Supply Pressure: Coffee quality is taking a hit as devastating rains in Brazil damaged Arabica berries, raising fears of record-low certified stocks and tighter supplies for premium roasters. Trade & Market Volatility: Corn prices jumped to a three-year high after analysts found worse US crop conditions, while traders also watch El Niño risks for Brazil and export constraints from the Black Sea. Industrial Tech & Safety: ALTAVE is bringing AI-powered operational intelligence to offshore and industrial sites, including Petrobras, as operators look to improve safety and decision-making with computer vision. Automotive Manufacturing: Volkswagen revealed the Tukan ute for Latin America, built in Brazil on MQB architecture, with production starting in 2027 and a lineup likely including turbo petrol options. Commodities & Mining Watch: Rare-earth activity in Brazil stays in focus as companies expand footprints in Bahia, signaling continued interest in critical minerals supply chains.

Humanoid Robotics Showcase: China’s 2nd World Games of Humanoid Robots in Beijing turned into a real industrial brag-fest, with robots breaking sprint and jump records and Brazil among the small foreign contingent. Water & Water Security: A new cross-country ranking highlights the gap between renewable freshwater availability and actual withdrawals per person, with Guyana near the top on both supply and use—useful context for Brazil’s own water stress debates. Brazil-Linked Defense & Industry: Turkey’s Otokar pitched Brazil its TULPAR tracked IFV/light tank for the Army’s modernization push, aiming to speed local production and maintenance. Agribusiness & Climate Risk: Brazil’s desertification threat is framed as a food-and-water security issue, affecting tens of millions across biomes like Caatinga and Pantanal. Food Prices Watch: JPMorgan warns global food costs could rise in early 2027 as fertilizer supply is squeezed by Middle East disruptions and El Niño threatens harvests—Brazil’s exposure is flagged. Brazil Coffee Quality: Heavy downpours in Brazil are delaying harvest and hurting arabica quality, tightening premium bean availability. Trade Tension via Beef: U.S. moves to temporarily lower beef prices by importing more meat trigger pushback from ranchers and Republicans, with Brazil repeatedly cited in the tariff backdrop. BRICS Diplomacy: India’s BRICS presidency agenda centers on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability, with Brazil part of the expanded bloc.

Brazil-U.S. Trade Thaw: Lula and Trump held a 1h20m call to reopen direct dialogue on tariffs, election integrity, and global conflicts, with Trump assuring no U.S. interference in Brazil’s October 2026 vote. Rare Earth Rush: Brazil is seeing a surge in rare-earth exploration permits driven by U.S. and Australian-backed capital, but the boom is raising alarms over environmental risks and impacts on Indigenous territories. Animal Protein Exports: Brazil’s meat industry is deepening ties with the Philippines, where Brazilian suppliers already account for about half of imported meat in Jan–Jun and a rising share of 2025 purchases. Mining Safety Standardization: Komatsu South Africa earned TRL4 certification for collision prevention systems, a step toward consistent safety across mixed autonomous mining fleets. Agribusiness Innovation: Bioma registered Brazil’s first fungicide based entirely on microbial metabolites, targeting major soybean diseases and signaling momentum in biological crop protection. Industrial Tech & Mobility: Volkswagen is reportedly preparing a Fortuner-rival seven-seat SUV for Brazil, while Brazil’s vehicle financing program expands for taxi and app drivers. Energy & Policy: Brazil’s Lula reiterated defense-industrial ambitions, linking national security to industrial capacity.

BRICS Tourism Track: India’s chairship in Jaipur saw BRICS ministers adopt the “Jaipur Declaration,” pushing AI for tourism, sustainability, skills building, and seamless travel facilitation—with the UAE backing a BRICS Tourism Solutions Exchange Platform. Health & Pharma Compliance: Panama issued a public alert over counterfeit Mounjaro (tirzepatide) after an Anvisa warning tied to mismatched serial numbers, urging buyers to use only authorized channels. Brazil–US Trade & Politics: A Lula–Trump call reopened direct dialogue on tariffs, election integrity, and global conflicts, with Trump reportedly assuring no US interference in Brazil’s October 2026 vote. Agri-Food Exports: The EU will tighten entry rules from Sept. 3, striking Brazil from authorized lists for several animal products over antibiotic guarantees, threatening roughly $1.8B/year in trade. Oil & Gas Corporate Move: BPCL’s arm completed the buyout of Videocon’s JV stake, renaming it BPRL Brasil Limitada with interests in blocks including BM-SEAL-11 and BM-C-30. Biological Inputs: Bioma registered Brazil’s first metabolite-based biofungicide, targeting soybean diseases like anthracnose and target spot.

Rare Earth Rush: The U.S. and other buyers are turning to Brazil for rare earths as foreign-backed exploration permits surge, but Indigenous communities warn of major environmental risks. Trade Tensions: Brazil’s Lula urged renewed tariff talks with Trump after the U.S. kept 25% levies on Brazilian imports, proposing official meetings to reset negotiations. Agribusiness & Sugar: Sugar futures jumped on tightness and demand worries, with India allowing up to 1 million tons of raw sugar imports while Brazil shifts more cane to sugar over ethanol. Mining & Critical Minerals: The rare-minerals supply chain is moving toward vertical integration beyond mines, with Brazil cited among projects aiming to secure processing and downstream steps. Energy & Industry Tech: Brazil is pushing an AI supercomputer push and AI infrastructure investment, while payments and fintech expansion continues to deepen in-country industrial services. Manufacturing & Mobility: Volkswagen revealed the new Tukan pickup for Brazil, signaling a broader product offensive for Latin America. BRICS in Brazil’s Orbit: BRICS Youth and Sports ministers met in Visakhapatnam with Brazil among member delegations, focusing on youth empowerment, sports cooperation, tech and sustainability.

Petrobras Expansion: Petrobras has started negotiations to acquire four offshore exploration blocks in Ghana’s Keta Basin, aiming to replenish reserves and diversify beyond Brazil’s Equatorial Margin. AI Infrastructure Push: Brazil will get a new AI supercomputer (7.2 petaflops) via a BRL 1bn investment, with compute capacity shared for research and AI applications. Payments Modernization: Inter Pag (Banco Inter’s merchant acquiring arm) selected ACI Worldwide to upgrade intelligent payments orchestration in Brazil, adding cloud acquiring and AI-driven fraud prevention. Power Auctions Watch: Eneva says it’s ready for more Brazil grid-operator capacity auctions after winning 5.4 GW in the March round, while questioning LNG terminal access rules. Mining Spotlight: Inside Vale’s Carajás iron ore complex, the story highlights how automation and AI logistics power output while raising environmental and Indigenous land concerns. Energy Security Under El Niño: Brazil’s regulator (Aneel) is considering advancing funds for fuel stockpiling for Amazon-area power generation to reduce drought and transport risks. Trade & Food Costs: Global food inflation fears are rising as shipping disruptions and El Niño threaten yields, with Latin America flagged among the most exposed regions.

AI Infrastructure Push: Brazil will invest about 2.3bn reais (US$444m) in AI infrastructure, splitting work between a Rio de Janeiro project with Huawei and iFlytek for large language models and a Rio Grande do Norte supercomputer tender expected to rank among the world’s top 10, with Nvidia tipped as likely supplier—aimed at data sovereignty and avoiding dependence on a single vendor. Payments Modernization: Inter Pag (Banco Inter’s merchant acquiring arm) selected ACI Worldwide’s acquiring platform to scale in Brazil, adding AI-driven fraud prevention, analytics and orchestration for the fast-growing SME merchant base. Construction Equipment Demand: John Deere’s Construction & Forestry division reported Q3 sales of US$3.618bn, up from US$3.059bn, citing higher shipment volumes and better pricing, with a 2026 outlook pointing to growth in compact construction equipment and roadbuilding. Energy & Offshore Output: Petrobras’ Alexandre de Gusmão FPSO hit peak production at 180,000 bpd in the Mero pre-salt field, supporting continued efficiency gains and reservoir monitoring upgrades. Logistics & Trade Links: Ningbo auto exports surged in the first seven months of 2026, with Brazil among top destinations by value, while a new Ningbo–Italy–Spain deep-sea route and “one-stop” supervision for auto exports aim to streamline shipping.

Women’s Football Infrastructure: FIFA confirmed the full match schedule for the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil, with the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro set to host both the opening match and the final, plus 64 games across eight host cities. Agri-Biotech: Brazilian researchers at Embrapa and the University of São Paulo identified bacteria that can cut wheat root rot symptoms by about 60%, pointing to new inoculant options for farmers. Energy & Grid Reliability: Eneva started commercial operations of the Azulão I gas-fired power plant in Amazonas under its “reservoir-to-wire” model, targeting long-term firm capacity for Brazil’s interconnected grid. Mining Logistics: Vale said it will keep iron ore transshipment at about 20 million tonnes annually through Malaysia, supporting Asia-Pacific demand. Industrial Power Generation: LATAM began trialing drones to speed up MRO material transport inside its São Carlos maintenance operation, cutting trips from hours to seconds for small parts. Brazilian Industry Watch: LG Electronics opened a new refrigerator plant in Brazil, expanding local manufacturing capacity for the Global South push.

Climate & Resilience: A new argument from China’s storm response says the world has plenty of mitigation tech, but adaptation tools lag—after Typhoon Bavi exposed gaps in flood and infrastructure readiness. Shipping & Energy Markets: VLCC rates are surging “stop-the-press” as Chinese crude buying, tighter tonnage, and the Hormuz crisis push freight economics higher. Brazilian Agribusiness Trade: UK regulators say no new restrictions on Brazilian animal-origin products on Sept. 3 while they review Brazil’s antimicrobial assurance system—yet EU rules still threaten a beef exclusion from Sept. 3. Industrial Hygiene & Consumer Goods: Essity agreed to buy Kenvue’s feminine care business in Brazil (Carefree, Sempre Livre, o.b.), targeting growth in Latin America. Solar & Electrification: BYD started selling 4.8 kW solar kits via 233 dealerships in Brazil, bundling equipment, installation, utility approval, and insurance. Manufacturing & Investment: LG Electronics began operations of a new refrigerator plant in Brazil, expanding production capacity for the Global South push.

Sugar Market: Sugar futures slipped after a sharp rally, with technical selling and profit-taking hitting prices even as analysts warn of tighter global supplies ahead. Coffee & Harvest: Coffee prices eased as Brazil’s harvest pace accelerated with drier weather, while inventories trends keep traders watching arabica and robusta supply closely. Mining Services in Brazil: Metso will build a new repair and maintenance facility in Minas Gerais, boosting its comminution services capacity and expanding its South America footprint. Agribusiness & Food Exports: Brazil’s cattle producers are pushing back against EU antimicrobial curbs by expanding a “free of antimicrobials” export protocol, aiming for a gradual return to EU authorization lists. Poultry M&A: JBS made another move to buy the rest of Pilgrim’s Pride it doesn’t own, seeking full control and cost synergies in a bid that could reshape the U.S. chicken market. Industrial Manufacturing: Yanmar broke ground on a R$280 million Indaiatuba facility in São Paulo to expand tractor output and spare parts distribution for small and medium farmers. Aviation Safety: Rio de Janeiro’s helicopter tourism is under scrutiny after multiple crashes, with regulators suspending panoramic flights and raising questions about oversight. Tech & Payments: Apple adjusted EU App Store rules, allowing alternative payments and third-party distribution under a new 5% commission structure. Climate Watch: NOAA says El Niño is likely to intensify, with major knock-on risks for global crops and food prices, including impacts that can reach Brazil.

Amazon & Environment in Court: Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court is set to review cases that could reshape legal protection for the Amazon and indigenous territories, including disputes over environmental safeguards and infrastructure projects—an arena where Lula’s agenda keeps colliding with a conservative Congress. Oil & Sovereignty: President Lula hailed Petrobras’ oil discovery near the mouth of the Amazon as “a passport to the country’s future,” while environmentalists warn about spill risks in a highly biodiverse area. Mining Policy Push: Vale will deliver a proposal to all 2026 presidential candidates to modernize Brazil’s mining fundamentals and licensing, aiming to strengthen the mineral chain and attract new projects. Methane Rules, EU Pressure & Brazil Progress: The European Commission recommends how to handle methane-emissions compliance for imports, while a separate report highlights Brazil’s progress on its regulatory agenda for methane emissions. Food Prices & El Niño Shock: A super El Niño plus the Middle East crisis is expected to lift food prices, with Brazil-to-Asia supply pressures showing up in sugar and other staples. Agri-Trade & Industry Outlook: Research projects shifting global agri-food export positions by 2035, with Brazil expected to gain ground as trade patterns evolve. Corporate Moves in Protein: JBS proposed taking full control of Pilgrim’s Pride, extending Brazil’s push deeper into global poultry value chains.

Oil & Energy: Petrobras confirmed oil discovery near the mouth of the Amazon River in Amapá, while another report says signs of hydrocarbons were found off Brazil’s Equatorial Margin—both keep Brazil’s upstream momentum in focus. Agribusiness & Trade: Brazil’s soy and biofuel policy is under pressure as the country presses the EU to revise soy biofuel rules after a Parliament veto, adding uncertainty for feedstock demand. Payments & Fintech: Mastercard is seeking a settlement over about $950m in losses tied to the Will Bank liquidation, a dispute that could reshape liability across Brazil’s card payments ecosystem. Industry Finance: Moody’s flags Brazil’s budget rigidity as a structural drag on investment capacity, with most spending locked into wages, interest, subsidies and transfers. Logistics & Risk: A drought-and-Amazon risk angle is emerging for shipping surcharges as waterway conditions threaten supply chains. Digital Economy: Instant payments hit $22tn globally, with Brazil’s Pix cited as a key driver of mass adoption. Cybersecurity: A major Android fraud-as-a-service platform (BTMob) is reported targeting Brazil with WhatsApp-led scams. Elections & Policy: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro adds former Mines and Energy minister Adolfo Sachsida to his economic team, signaling a sharper push on fiscal rules ahead of October.