AGP Executive Report

AI & Water Use: A new UNU-INWEH report warns AI data centers could consume 9.3 trillion liters of water annually by 2030—about enough for 1.3 billion people—adding a fresh environmental cost to the AI boom. Food & Biofuels: A T&E study says aggressive biofuel targets could push global biofuel use up 30% this year and 70% by 2030, squeezing food prices and worsening fertilizer shortages. Food Prices Watch: The FAO says world food prices slipped in May, with vegetable oils down 4.6% while cereals and sugar rose, keeping markets near multi-year highs. Trade Pressure on Brazil: The U.S. is moving ahead with Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, proposing 12.5% for countries including Brazil unless they adopt enforcement mechanisms. Agri-Business & Logistics: IATA expands cargo services in Brazil, Mexico and Paraguay, signaling continued investment in air freight capacity. Mobility & Services: Uber launched in Nepal, testing models that could later expand into food and courier—relevant for regional ride-hailing competition. Brazil Industry Angle: Brazil’s inequality continues to fall, with education-linked gains lifting incomes and expanding the middle class.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. USTR proposed new Section 301 tariffs tied to forced-labor claims, with a public comment window running to July 6 and a July 7 hearing—Brazil is among the targeted economies, raising compliance pressure for exporters and importers. Customs Enforcement: A new U.S. executive order overhauls the “importer of record” rules, tightening who can file and increasing disclosure and certification requirements, with implementation deadlines in 90 and 180 days. Aviation & Logistics: IATA is expanding cargo services across Latin America, including CASS rollouts and real-time billing tools, signaling more digitized freight operations for Brazil-linked supply chains. Defense & Aerospace: Brazil plans to buy 20 more Saab Gripen jets, accelerating replacement of aging F-5 fighters and boosting long-term local aerospace capacity. Food & Agriculture: FAO reports global food prices broadly stable in May, with cereal and sugar gains offset by drops in vegetable oils and dairy—relevant for Brazil’s agribusiness planning. Energy & Geopolitics: The Strait of Hormuz risk is reshaping global shipping and insurance costs, while Brazil and others ramp production to offset disruptions.

OECD Industrial Policy: Korea’s trade minister Yeo Han-koo used the OECD ministerial in Paris to push for smarter industrial policy that boosts manufacturing productivity and clean energy without undermining open trade. Biofuels vs. Food Prices: Rising oil prices are driving a surge in biofuel demand (including Brazil), but analysts warn “food for fuel” could worsen food inflation and raise global crisis risk. Brazil Energy & Oil: Brazil plans to ramp domestic oil output about 30% by 2032, aiming to become a top global supplier as markets scramble for non–Strait of Hormuz supply. Agri-Food Sustainability: China agreed to buy certified deforestation-free Brazilian beef, signaling growing demand for traceable, forest-friendly supply chains. Trade Friction: The U.S. proposed forced-labor tariffs that could hit major exporters, with Brazil among those facing potential spillovers. Shipping & Shipbuilding: SAFEEN Drydocks won $354m in vessel contracts, reinforcing maritime construction capacity tied to regional logistics needs. Climate & Cities: UNEP backs passive cooling over air conditioning as heat intensifies, with outdoor and informal workers most exposed.

Data & Insurance for AI infrastructure: Zurich expanded its Data Center Project Guard into Brazil and other markets, offering construction and delay-in-start-up coverage as AI drives a new wave of datacentre builds. Broadcast tech rollout: GatesAir opened a new Brazil office in Minas Gerais to assemble and service TV/radio transmission gear, aiming to speed support for the DTV+ transition. Aviation decarbonization: IATA pledged closer work with ICAO on transparent tracking of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), as airlines also juggle jet-fuel price shocks. Energy exploration: Petrobras secured an Ibama licence renewal for a three-well offshore programme in Brazil’s Potiguar basin, with drilling expected in 2H26. Telecom expansion: BNDES approved BRL 10m to build about 162 km of fibre optic transport in rural São Paulo. Trade pressure on Brazil: The US proposed forced-labour tariffs that could reach up to 12.5% for Brazil, adding uncertainty for exporters and supply chains. Agrifood sustainability: China agreed to buy 50,000 tonnes of deforestation-free Brazilian beef by end-2027, betting on traceability and forest-friendly sourcing.

Aerospace & Defense: Saab unveiled the first two-seat Gripen F for the Brazilian Air Force, built through long-running industrial cooperation that’s trained hundreds of engineers and technicians and now moves into flight testing. Energy Storage & Renewables: Investors including Brookfield and Brasol are lining up for Brazil’s first battery auction, aimed at helping storage buy power from struggling renewables—though the auction is slated for December. Agri-Food & Sustainability: Chinese meat traders began buying Brazil’s first deforestation-free beef under the Beef on Track certification, with audits tied to illegal clearing, protected areas, and labor checks. Trade & Industry Risk: The U.S. proposed new forced-labor tariffs of 10%–12.5% on nearly 60 economies, including Brazil, raising compliance and cost pressures for exporters. EU Market Access: Brazil is scrambling to meet EU antibiotic rules for beef by Sept. 3, with traceability gaps threatening access. Logistics & Ports: AD Ports agreed to acquire Brazil’s CLI in an $835m deal, expanding its agri-bulk logistics footprint. World Cup Business: Brazil’s World Cup Group C spotlight continues as fans and hospitality operators watch demand and pricing ahead of the tournament.

US Tariff Shock for Brazil: The Trump administration is proposing new forced-labor tariffs, including a 25% levy on Brazilian imports, drawing an angry response from President Lula and raising new uncertainty for Brazil’s exporters. Energy Storage Push: Brazil’s regulator Aneel approved rules for energy storage systems, aiming to expand battery projects beyond behind-the-meter use and set the stage for a storage capacity auction before end-2026. Renewables Investment Risk: BlackRock’s Atlas Renewable Energy paused a planned $1B Brazil investment after grid operator curtailments, highlighting how market design can punish solar and wind developers. Rare Earth Industrial Bet: USA Rare Earth plans a $1.2B rare-earth magnet facility in South Carolina, while Brazil remains in the mix via planned rare-earth mining supply. Agribusiness & Tech: Uncover raised $16M to expand its marketing measurement platform into the U.S., while Brazil’s Indigenous land-protection rules are criticized for being renewed without stopping invasions. Controlled Environment Agriculture: A new report forecasts rapid growth for controlled environment agriculture, a signal for Brazil’s future food-tech and high-yield production ambitions.

US Tariff Push on Brazil: The U.S. Trade Representative floated a broad 25% tariff on Brazilian imports after a trade probe into “unfair practices,” adding pressure on Brazil’s exporters and supply chains. Agribulk Logistics Deal: AD Ports Group agreed to buy Brazil’s CLI (Corredor Logística e Infraestrutura) in an ~$835m deal, boosting its agrifood export terminal footprint at Santos and Itaqui. Cotton Outlook: ICAC expects China, the U.S., and Brazil to cut cotton acreage in 2026-27 as input costs rise and profitability weakens, with global area and production forecast to decline. Defense & Metals: 6K Additive won a $1.95m U.S. Defense contract to turn domestic scrap into strategic metal powders, with niobium supply linked to Brazil flagged as a key dependency. Aviation for Brazil: Saab rolled out the first two-seat Gripen F for Brazil’s air force, starting flight tests before delivery. World Cup Build-Up: Philadelphia detailed security and logistics for the 2026 tournament, while Brazil’s World Cup squad rankings and fan planning content kept attention on matchday momentum. Brazil Compliance Risk: The U.S. designated Brazil’s PCC and CV as terrorist organizations, raising legal and compliance stakes for companies with regional exposure.

Port & Logistics Deal: UAE’s AD Ports Group agreed to buy Brazil’s agribulk terminal operator CLI for about $835m (AED 3.1bn), gaining sugar and grains gateways at Santos and Itaqui and aiming to deepen its food logistics footprint across South America. Agribusiness Exports: China officially recognizes all Brazil as foot-and-mouth disease-free, reopening room for expanded Brazilian beef and pork shipments. Macroeconomic Outlook: The IMF said Brazil’s economy shows “remarkable resilience,” projecting growth around 2.5% in the medium term while flagging downside risks from geopolitics and tighter finance. Trade Tensions: The US proposed 25% Section 301 tariffs on many Brazilian imports, while also signaling “nuanced” exclusions; more Section 301 findings are expected soon. Industrial AI: Siemens launched Intelligence Center X to help companies scale industrial AI from pilots to production with human-in-the-loop orchestration. Food & Feed Manufacturing: ADM inaugurated a new premix and feed additives plant in Apucarana, Paraná, focused on traceability and segregation for Brazil’s protein value chain. Rare Earths Supply Chain: USA Rare Earth selected Cherokee County, South Carolina for a $1.2bn magnet manufacturing and refined metals operation, supporting a Brazil-linked rare earth mine-to-magnet strategy.

Rare Earth & Lithium Deal in Brazil: St George Mining welcomed Amperex Technology (ATL) onto its register via a $2m investment, reshaping its Lithium Star JV and giving ATL exposure to St George’s Araxá rare earths and niobium project in Brazil. China-Brazil Strategic Ties: China’s FM Wang Yi met Brazil’s FM Mauro Vieira in Beijing, reaffirming deeper China-Latin America cooperation and trade alignment. Circular Economy Push: A CNI survey found 72% of Brazilians view sustainability and the circular economy positively, but 43% still hesitate to buy recycled products—mainly due to preference for new goods and doubts about durability. Fuel Price & Petrobras Moves: Brazil extended emergency measures to contain fuel prices amid volatility, while Petrobras cut diesel prices as fuel taxes were reinstated. Mining & Processing Agreement: Resouro Strategic Metals signed a mining, transport and processing deal for its Novo Mundo gold project in Mato Grosso, aiming to unlock value without diverting capital from its Tiros rare earths and titanium focus. Food & Agri Markets: Brazil’s corn competitiveness and global grain volatility stayed in focus as markets digested crop conditions and upcoming ratings.

Brazil–China Trade & Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira heads to Beijing for the 5th Global Strategic Dialogue, with meetings expected with China’s vice-president and commerce minister; trade hit $170.9B in 2025, with Brazil running a $29B surplus on agricultural exports. Urban Environment & Public Services: Rio’s North Zone faces a major loss risk for Ary Barroso Park, with residents pointing to decades of government neglect as heat and infrastructure gaps worsen. Brazil–China Cultural Ties: The visit also includes events tied to the Brazil–China Cultural Year, with a stop at China’s National Museum. Food & Climate Pressure on Industry: A new report links extreme heat to supply-chain and farm losses across Brazil’s key crops and livestock, underscoring rising climate risk for agribusiness output. Energy & Industrial Policy Context: Brazil’s fuel-price controls and broader market volatility continue to shape costs for consumers and logistics-heavy sectors.

Mining & Amazon Governance: An InfoAmazonia investigation says Brazil’s National Mining Agency still holds permits with irregularities tied to illegal gold laundering in the Amazon, with mercury contamination showing up in river communities. Environment & Land Use: MapBiomas reports Amazon deforestation fell 20.6% in 2025 (and Amazon-only down 23.5%), but destruction remains “breathtaking,” with the Cerrado still the hardest hit. Oil & Offshore Production: SBM Offshore won Petrobras contracts for two SEAP FPSOs (SEAP-I and SEAP-II) in the Sergipe-Alagoas basin, targeting ~120,000 bpd each, with deliveries expected in 2030–2031. Ports & Logistics: Port of Itajaí plans to remove the 1893 wreck “Pallas” to unblock dredging and deepen access for larger vessels. Critical Resources & Industry Strategy: A geopolitics-focused piece argues Brazil’s rare earth potential and commodity base make it a strategic growth market as supply-chain risk rises. Energy Transition & Climate Risk: Research highlights longer dry seasons and worse drought in parts of the Brazilian Amazon, raising fire risk and ecosystem stress. Commodities Watch: Reports on fertilizer and grain volatility underscore how Iran-war disruptions keep pressuring agricultural inputs and markets.

Fuel & Energy Policy: Brazil extended emergency fuel price controls for two months (until July 31), adding diesel subsidies and a compensation mechanism for refiners/importers as global oil volatility tied to the Iran conflict keeps pressure on consumers. Agribusiness & Fertilizers: The Iran war is pushing farmers to seek fertilizer alternatives, with reports highlighting how chemical input shortages and higher prices are reshaping farming choices across regions including Brazil and India. Trade & Industry: Brazil–Guyana trade jumped from about US$58M (2020) to US$1B (2026), driven by demand in energy, mining, infrastructure and construction. Environment & Supply Chains: Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon fell below 1M hectares in 2025, down 20.6% year-on-year, as the country links the energy transition push with critical minerals and cleaner production. Digital Culture & Media: Lula launched Tela Brasil, a free public streaming service on Gov.br with an initial catalog of 555 Brazilian productions, aiming to boost access to local content.

Beef Supply Crunch: Beef prices are hitting record highs, with economists pointing to a shrinking cattle herd and drought-driven herd losses as the main drivers, not just general inflation. Food & Trade Signals: China has reopened poultry imports for 17 US states after HPAI-related restrictions were lifted, potentially boosting US chicken export volumes. Mining ESG Shift: A new wave of mandatory ESG reporting is moving from voluntary “brochures” to audit-grade rules, with IFRS/CSRD-style standards reshaping how mining assets are valued. Critical Minerals & Trade: The EU is pushing tougher measures to shield industries from surging Chinese imports and secure alternative supplies of key inputs, including rare earths. Amazon Gold Crackdown: Greenpeace reports “ghost permits” are helping illegal Amazon gold keep flowing despite Brazil’s crackdown efforts. Oilfield Momentum: Constellation Oil Services uplists to Norway’s main exchange and highlights Petrobras rig contract extensions worth $1.1bn. Brazil Biofuels Context: Vietnam’s E10 rollout echoes Brazil’s long-running ethanol push, underscoring how biofuel blending supports energy security and emissions goals.

Petrobras FPSO Revitalization: Petrobras is preparing tenders for floating production, storage and offloading units to revamp mature fields in the Santos and Campos basins, including a likely EPC-backed FPSO for the Tupi Revitalisation project. Bridge Engineering Tech: Sener Mobility says it cut design time and material costs on Brazil’s Salvador-Itaparica Bridge by using Bentley subsurface modeling and analysis tools. Cotton Push (US, with Brazil impact): The USDA launched the Great American Cotton Plan to revive U.S. cotton demand and textile manufacturing, aiming to regain export leadership after losing the top spot to Brazil in 2023. EU-China Industrial Shielding: The European Commission is weighing tougher measures to protect Europe from surging Chinese imports, targeting chemicals, metals and clean-tech supply chains. Brazilian Youth Inclusion Study: A new report maps barriers for minoritized youth across education and work, highlighting gaps for Black, Indigenous, rural, disabled and LGBTQIAPN+ groups. Housing Rights in Rio: A two-part investigation shows how long-running state neglect has left Favela da Skol residents still waiting for housing after evictions tied to mega-events. Digital Finance Compliance: Coinbase Institutional advanced its TRUST network with TRUSThub and BNY joining the consortium, expanding Travel Rule compliance infrastructure across major markets including Brazil. Agriculture Labor Signal: Data shows intermittent work is gaining share in Brazil’s formal job creation, reflecting ongoing labor-market flexibility after reforms.

Brazil Economy Watch: Brazil’s GDP rebounded in Q1, up 1.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, led by agriculture (+2.0%), mining (+3.6%) and a construction rebound (+2.9%), while manufacturing barely moved (+0.1%). Offshore Oil & Gas: SBM Offshore won Petrobras contracts for FPSOs SEAP-I and SEAP-II in the Sergipe-Alagoas basin, with deliveries targeted for 2030 and 2031. Mining & Metals: Serabi Gold reported a sharp Q1 jump, with gold production up 20% to 12,043 ounces, revenue rising to $50.6m, and the company now debt-free after repaying $5.3m. Energy & Fertilizers: The Iran-linked shipping disruption around Hormuz is tightening global fertilizer inputs (urea, sulfur, ammonia), pushing prices higher and raising food-security risks into 2026. Agrochemicals: Jiangsu Heben secured a self-owned registration in Brazil for difenoconazole technical, strengthening its position in key fungicide markets. Heritage & Industry: A Pará court ordered officials to restore Fordlandia, Henry Ford’s Amazon rubber city, as a major heritage protection milestone. Security & Industry Tech: Brazil-linked hackers used fake Adobe Document Cloud pages to deliver ScreenConnect malware to financial targets.

US–Brazil Security Crackdown: The U.S. State Department moved to designate Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, effective June 5, escalating pressure on narco-gang revenue streams that also spill into regional trade and public safety. Amazon Illegal Mining: Greenpeace found “ghost permits” used to sell about 26.8 tons of illegally mined Amazon gold worth an estimated $3.88B since 2018, despite Lula’s crackdown and record Federal Police seizures. Critical Minerals & Mining Pipeline: Solis Minerals says it will start maiden diamond drilling at its Mandacaru lithium project in Brazil in June 2026, while other coverage highlights growing demand for battery and rare-earth inputs. Agribusiness Risk: IICA warns El Niño plus the fertilizer crunch could hit rural incomes, yields, and food prices across Latin America and the Caribbean, with uneven impacts for Brazil and neighbors. Energy & Industry Links: Petrobras and Mexico’s Pemex are negotiating Gulf of Mexico deepwater exploration and joint refining/gas projects, with Lula framing it as strategic industrial cooperation. Workweek Reform Watch: Brazil’s shorter-workweek plan faces economist and business pushback as lawmakers debate the election-year labor overhaul.