AGP Executive Report

Ethanol & Fuel Policy: India’s government pushed back on claims that E20 petrol harms older vehicles, saying studies show no major engine or durability issues and that only some pre-2016 BS-III models may need minor rubber parts/gaskets. Rare Earths & Mining: Power Minerals hit 116m at 4.78% TREO from surface at Morro do Ferro, including strong magnet rare earth grades and high gallium, boosting the project’s critical-minerals appeal. Rare Earths & Project Finance: St George Mining advanced its Araxá niobium-rare earth work with separate high-grade concentrates, while raising A$60m and ending June with about A$80.7m cash. Trade & Tariffs: US Senate advanced a Russia sanctions bill that could translate into 100% oil tariffs for buyers like India and China, adding pressure to global energy and trade costs. Food Safety: Police seized 35 tonnes of unfit food meant for retail distribution, underscoring tighter enforcement in supply chains. Health Tech: Phase 3 data at AIDS 2026 points to a once-weekly oral HIV regimen maintaining suppression through 48 weeks, signaling a potential shift in treatment convenience.

Meat Trade Watch: A Brazilian beef push targets the Philippines, with Abiec saying exports could hit 80,000–96,000 metric tons in 2026, after 35,878 tons in the first half (+34.6% y/y), as younger consumers lift demand. Food Safety & EU Pressure: An EU vote is nearing on whether Brazil can keep exporting animal products, with MEP Ciaran Mullooly urging the European Commission to treat the issue as a strict public-health matter over antimicrobial rules. Jobs & Manufacturing Pulse: Brazil added 145,161 formal jobs in June, with services leading (+74,514) and agriculture/livestock (+22,898), though the month marked the weakest June hiring since 2020. Energy Markets: Shell’s Q2 profit tripled to $10.8B as Middle East conflict boosted oil prices, while volumes fell on supply disruptions. Capital Markets: Vantiva plans to move its Euronext listing to Euronext Growth Paris to cut regulatory constraints and listing costs, pending shareholder approval. Logistics & Biofuels: Baltic Exchange highlighted freight benchmarking demand for biofuels, chemicals and agri-oil supply chains, including ethanol and biodiesel feedstocks.

Brazil–South Korea Industrial Push: President Lee Jae-myung proposed aircraft development, critical-minerals supply-chain cooperation and K-beauty collaboration with Brazil, signing seven MoUs including KAI–Embraer aerospace ties. Automotive Manufacturing: Hyundai’s Euisun Chung doubled down on Brazil, pledging more SUVs, localized electrification (including a Brazil-specific flex-fuel hybrid) and future hydrogen work as Chinese rivals pressure the market. Energy & Commodities: Shell reported strong Q2 results and announced another $3bn share buyback, citing record upstream production in Brazil and high refinery utilisation. Agribusiness & Trade: Brazil coffee faces early flowering and quality risks from unusually high moisture tied to El Niño, while Brazil also denounced U.S. moves to extend emergency trade powers used to justify punitive tariffs. Sustainability Data: Sylvera launched an open-access forest carbon dataset for Brazil’s Atlantic Forest to support carbon markets with trusted measurement. Weather Disruption: A severe storm hit São Paulo state, suspending Santos port operations briefly and leaving at least three dead.

Port Electrification & Cargo Tech in Brazil: Kalmar will deliver five electric reachstackers to Portonave’s Navegantes terminal in Santa Catarina, aiming to cut emissions at the source while keeping productivity up. Oil & Gas Output: Petrobras reported Q2 2026 oil and gas production at a record 3.34 million boe/d, up 14.1% year-on-year, with higher exports and strong refinery utilization. Energy Infrastructure: WEG won a contract for Jaguara hydropower expansion, signaling continued investment in Brazil’s power generation upgrades. Trade & Tariff Pressure: Brazil filed a WTO complaint challenging U.S. tariffs, while separate coverage highlights Brazil’s push for new markets and credit support to cushion the impact on exporters. Health & Pharma Access: ANVISA approved Sandoz’s new semaglutide option (Owozy) for type-2 diabetes, with launch planned for H2 2026. Agribusiness & Compliance: Studies and policy coverage point to how EU rules like deforestation-free requirements are reshaping coffee supply-chain compliance in Brazil. Manufacturing Skills: MIT is launching a “technologist” model for advanced manufacturing, pitching technologists as “nurse practitioners” to bridge skills gaps on shop floors.

Battery Storage Push: Brazil’s electricity regulator Aneel opened a public consultation on rules for the country’s first standalone BESS reserve-capacity auctions, with 15-year contracts and supply starting in 2028—an important step for grid flexibility as renewables scale. Critical Minerals & Rare Earths: Solis Minerals bought Rio Tinto’s drill-ready Brazil lithium project in Minas Gerais and has started drilling at Mandacaru; St George Mining posted record rare-earth and niobium intercepts at Araxá and secured funding to fast-track resources. Rare Earth Supply Chain Deals: Posco International signed an MoU with Meteoric Resources to secure rare-earth intermediate materials from Brazil for refining into oxides, while Meteoric and Posco also move to strengthen the chain. Grid Tech for Hydropower: Hyosung Heavy Industries won an order for ultra-high-voltage transformers for Brazil’s Foz do Areia hydropower expansion and will co-develop “hybrid STATCOM” grid-stabilization tech. Aerospace Engineering Expansion: UAE defense firm EDGE agreed to acquire 100% of Brazilian aerospace engineering company AKAER, aiming to deepen UAV and optronics capabilities. Luxury Food Ban: Brazil outlawed foie gras sales and production, effectively ending imports from France and reshaping a niche luxury market. Payments & BNPL: EBANX and Pagaleve launched Pix 4x BNPL, letting Brazilians split purchases into four biweekly installments without a credit card. Trade & Industry Context: Brazil filed a WTO complaint over US tariffs, underscoring how policy shocks keep hitting exporters and supply chains.

WTO Trade Clash: Brazil has formally requested WTO consultations over new U.S. tariffs, arguing the measures violate global trade rules; the dispute targets 25% and 12.5% surcharges that could hit about $6.6B in Brazilian exports to the U.S., with sectors like machinery, wood products, footwear, furniture and apparel in the crosshairs. Mercosur Pivot: Lula and South Korea’s Lee Jae-Myung agreed to push a Mercosur–South Korea working group to restart trade talks, aiming to reduce uncertainty amid U.S. tariff pressure. Agri-Food Access: China moved to add health-certificate procedures for Brazilian frozen fruit and fruit pulp, letting exporters begin authorization to sell products like açaí, mango, guava, pineapple and passion fruit. Data Center Rules: Brazilian researchers warned that data center expansion needs planning, transparency and public policy so investments deliver benefits without major socio-environmental costs. Logistics & Ports: ICTSI is expanding in Brazil by acquiring dry bulk terminals at Aratu Port and adding inland rail/warehousing integration to boost agricultural trade flows. Consumer Mood: Brazil’s consumer confidence fell for a third straight month, signaling a gradual erosion tied to the 2026 slowdown.

Trade & Tariffs: Brazil has formally requested WTO consultations over the U.S. 25% tariffs on most Brazilian imports, arguing they breach GATT and WTO rules, while noting some agricultural exemptions (including beef and coffee) narrow the immediate hit. EU Market Access: Brazil is waiting for the European Commission’s final technical decision on antimicrobial-use documentation that could trigger a meat export ban from Sept. 3, even as current exports continue. South Korea–Mercosur Push: Lee Jae-myung and Lula agreed to resume South Korea–Mercosur free-trade talks, aiming to restart negotiations at Mercosur’s December summit and setting up a working group. China–Brazil Coordination: Xi Jinping told Lula China is ready to strengthen strategic coordination and back Brazil’s sovereignty stance amid global uncertainty. Industrial Mobility: BYD hit 100,000 EVs produced in Brazil (Bahia), underscoring local manufacturing momentum. Agribusiness Pressure: Sugar producers warn imports are crushing local jobs and urge faster tariff protection updates. Mining & Metals: Graphite supply-chain news highlights Brazil-linked projects as battery demand keeps reshaping critical-minerals bets. Health & Pharma: At AIDS 2026 in Rio, funding cuts and high prices threaten HIV prevention progress, even as new prevention options advance.

Trade & Diplomacy: Lula hit back at the U.S. tariff push in a Washington Post op-ed, arguing it’s politically driven and will raise costs for Americans while disrupting Brazil’s integrated production chains. China Link: Lula and Xi agreed to speed Mercosur–China talks and deepen cooperation in AI, satellites, critical minerals processing and fertilizer trade. Auto Industry: Volkswagen will start limited hybrid production in São Bernardo do Campo, with mass output targeted for early 2027; Lula also said BYD’s Brazil entry “woke up” the sector. Energy & Logistics: Baker Hughes expects modestly lower global oil and gas spending in 2026, with Middle East conflict shifting demand toward maximizing existing assets. Shipping & Security: The Bab-el-Mandeb route is gaining importance as Strait of Hormuz risks rise, adding pressure to freight and supply chains. Food & Compliance: Brazil-related cooking oil scrutiny continues as FDA reports benzopyrene contamination linked to management failures. Sports Business: Coca-Cola signed a two-year CBF sponsorship deal covering Brasileirão, Serie B and Copa do Brasil through 2027.

Trade & Tariffs: Brazil’s Lula hits back at new U.S. tariffs, calling them a “strategic mistake” that will raise costs for Americans and disrupt supply chains. Energy Security: South Korea’s Lee orders fuel price caps and tax cuts to stay until Middle East-driven oil volatility eases, with extra support for diesel-reliant groups. Critical Minerals & Supply Chains: Lee begins a Brazil-Chile-Argentina tour to deepen cooperation on critical minerals for AI, with Mercosur trade and investment high on the agenda. Rail & Infrastructure: Alstom won a São Paulo suburban rail signalling contract for CPTM’s Mauá Norte Yard, using Brazilian labor and a 18-month delivery plan. Food & Agriculture: Brazil bans foie gras production and sales, while China’s beef import quota is nearing exhaustion, likely triggering higher prices. Environment & Water: A new study warns groundwater in Brazil is under pressure, especially in the Cerrado and key basins. Public Health: Ahead of AIDS 2026 in Rio, reports highlight impacts from PEPFAR disruption, including site closures and fewer children on treatment. Urban Housing: Rio’s first housing cooperative, Shangri-lá in Taquara, is profiled as a model of self-managed community development.

Trade Tensions: President Lula called new US tariffs an “unfair” “strategic mistake,” warning they’ll raise costs for Americans and disrupt Brazil–US supply chains. Export Pressure: Brazil’s industry estimates nearly half of its US exports could face additional tariffs, with mixed responses from business groups. Policy Shield: Lula signed a credit package to help exporters hit by the tariff wave, including a reported R$18.5bn relief plan for affected firms. Mining & Metals: A July mining M&A surge points to consolidation, with Alcoa’s $4.1bn move to expand upstream aluminum assets including Brazil. Energy & Shipping: A logistics-focused brief flags how tariff shocks are reshaping transpacific shipping and air cargo contracts. Sustainability & Enforcement: Brazil is using “gold fingerprinting” for forensic tracing to curb illegal Amazon mining. Agri Outlook: USDA forecasts record global coffee production and exports, with Brazil expected to deliver higher volumes.

Oil & Trade Flows: The U.S. recorded zero crude imports from Iraq for a fourth straight week, while it still bought oil from Canada, Venezuela—and also Brazil (242,000 bpd), underscoring how quickly supply shifts can ripple through Brazil’s upstream exposure. Mining & Enforcement: Brazil’s federal police are using a “gold lab” forensic approach to trace illegally mined Amazon gold by matching chemical signatures to geology, aiming to tighten enforcement in the gold supply chain. Environment & Infrastructure: Rio de Janeiro’s West Zone wetlands face worsening eutrophication and toxic cyanobacteria risks as sewage and sanitation gaps fuel water hyacinth blooms, with public health implications for coastal recreation. Energy Transition: India’s ethanol policy debate highlights the trade-off between simplifying fuel logistics and removing consumer choice—an issue Brazil’s biofuels industry will watch closely. Tech & Capital: South Korea’s president urged U.S.-Korea cooperation beyond security, pushing tech, innovation and startups—relevant for Brazil’s industrial tech partnerships. Politics & Business Climate: Brazil denied visas to U.S. officials seeking election-related talks, adding uncertainty to cross-border policy engagement.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. rolled out new forced-labor tariffs under Section 301, hitting Brazil with an extra 12.5% on thousands of products—about 48.7% of Brazilian exports to the U.S. face added duties, with table grapes now at 35%—and Brazil’s industry body says the move will pressure exporters and push market diversification. Aerospace: Embraer posted a record $34.5B order backlog in Q2, helped by E2 momentum and C-390 demand, while the company continues to lift output expectations. Mining & Enforcement: Brazil is using “gold fingerprinting” at a federal lab in Brasilia to trace the origin of seized gold and crack down on illegal mining in the Amazon. Agri-Food Markets: The USDA forecasts record global coffee production and exports in 2026/27, with Brazil expected to deliver a major share of the surplus. Tech & Industry: TikTok is building a massive data center in Brazil, underscoring the country’s growing role in global digital infrastructure. Health & Access: Aurobindo Pharma signed a voluntary licensing pact with MSD to manufacture generic alimatravir for HIV prevention across 129 low- and middle-income countries. Politics & Business Climate: Senator Flávio Bolsonaro was confirmed as his party’s presidential candidate, but his campaign faces alliance and running-mate hurdles ahead of October.

Process Industry & Exports: L&T Heavy Engineering says it has landed major global orders, including Dangote Group refinery and fertiliser expansion equipment, plus repeat LNG-related heat exchanger work in Canada and process equipment supply to Spain, the US and Brazil. Low-Carbon Chemicals: Moeve Chemicals completed verification of its global manufacturing network for Low Carbon products, with Brazil and Shanghai now approved to supply lower-carbon LAB and phenol derivatives worldwide. Trade Pressure on Brazil: The US forced-labour tariff regime is back in force, with Brazil named among the 60 economies facing higher duties; separate reporting also flags a US 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazil and Brazil seeking export support to cushion the hit. Energy & Climate: A new report says methane cuts are achievable across Africa and Latin America (including Brazil) using existing oil-and-gas measures, but costs depend on infrastructure, rules and financing. Digital Infrastructure: TikTok’s planned data center in Brazil is framed as a sign of Brazil’s growing role in digital infrastructure and geopolitical supply chains. Agribusiness Finance Innovation: Brazilian farmers tokenized dairy cows as collateral in a B3 credit deal, aiming to unlock loans amid tighter bank lending limits. Tech & AI Policy: Brazil’s broader AI ecosystem watch continues as global AI supply-chain deals and AI-focused forums highlight manufacturing and data-center capacity building.

Foie gras ban: Brazil’s Lula signed a law banning the sale and production of foie gras, citing animal cruelty—sparking fresh friction with France. US tariffs hit Brazil: New U.S. Section 301 forced-labor tariffs took effect, with a 12.5% surcharge on many Brazilian exports on top of a 25% duty; the U.S. also published a list of 471 Brazilian products exempted, including coffee, oil, gas, fertilizers, orange juice and açaí. Trade fallout: Brazil is weighing options as the tariff wave expands across 60 economies, while U.S. officials say forced-labor enforcement is the driver and critics call the rationale inconsistent. Ports & logistics: ICTSI agreed to buy Brazilian port concession rights for about $129M, targeting agricultural trade flows through terminals in Bahia. Mining enforcement: Brazil is using “gold fingerprinting” forensic testing to trace illegal Amazon gold and crack down on protected-area sourcing. Energy & industry: Brazil unveiled a credit package to help exporters absorb the impact of the U.S. tariff shock.

US Tariff Shock: The Trump administration is set to impose new 10%–12.5% duties on imports from 60 trading partners under Section 301, replacing a temporary global 10% levy that expires Friday; the move targets countries accused of weak enforcement of forced-labour import bans, with product exemptions including oil, gas, fertilizer and some foods. Brazil Response: Brazil rejected the 12.5% rate and reiterated calls for reciprocity as the broader tariff wall reshapes trade flows. Industrial Orders: L&T Heavy Engineering won international orders worth up to R$5,000 crore across Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe, including refinery and fertilizer expansion work for Dangote Group and LNG-related equipment for clients in Canada. Energy Tech Watch: Forecasts highlight fast growth in battery energy storage systems (to $363.5B by 2035), battery materials recycling (to $77.1B), and wind rotor blade markets (to $61.6B), underscoring the supply-chain race for Brazil’s power and renewables buildout. Amazon Conservation: Brazil’s Projeto Reconecta expanded rope canopy bridges to cut wildlife roadkill, a low-cost infrastructure model now being scaled.

US Tariff Shock & Brazil’s Response: President Lula said Brazil will keep negotiating with the U.S. despite an extra 25% tariff and will seek new export markets if talks fail, while the government rolled out BRL 18.5bn in subsidized credit under Plano Brasil Soberano 3 for exporters and strategic sectors. Trade Friction Watch: Brazil’s beef supply chain pushed to reopen the EU market by complying with an antimicrobial-free cattle export protocol, with a new meeting set for Aug. 18 after the EU removed Brazil from its authorized list. Bioenergy Deal: Raízen agreed to sell its Caarapó sugar and ethanol mill to Adecoagro for about R$760m as it streamlines operations and cuts debt. Agri-Tech & Logistics: The EU-Mercosur deal is driving post-farmgate investment and supply-chain coordination in Brazil, with industry players pointing to infrastructure imbalances and new tech needs. Industry Tech: STADLER is expanding “connected” waste-sorting via STADLERconnect, using cross-plant learning to improve operations. Energy & Materials: Brazil’s BESS market hit 504 MWh in Q1 as storage demand accelerates, while Viridis reported rare-earth recovery rates above expectations in its demo plant.