AGP Executive Report

G7 Diplomacy & Energy Shock: Leaders kicked off the G7 in Evian-les-Bains with the US-Iran interim deal and Middle East stability high on the agenda, after renewed strikes in Ukraine underscored how fast security risks can spill into markets. Trade Pressure on Brazilian Industry: Brazil’s industry confederation (CNI) warns proposed US additional tariffs could hit 35.2% of Brazilian exports (up to 54.1% with existing sector duties), with forced-labor claims potentially adding up to 37.5% on some products. Mining & Rare Earths Push: Power Minerals began a maiden diamond drilling campaign at its Morro do Ferro REE project in Minas Gerais, targeting 4,000m for resource expansion plus 800m for metallurgical samples. Corporate Tech & Distribution: Ingram Micro won HPE’s 2026 Global Distributor of the Year, with Brazil also taking top distributor/value distributor honors. Electrification Trend: A survey of executives across 18 countries (including Brazil) found 90% expect operations to be largely electrified by 2035, citing competitiveness and energy security. Brazil Market Mood: São Paulo stocks fell as Petrobras slid with crude oil after the US-Iran deal news.

Defense & Security: The U.S. approved a potential $330M sale of 100 FIM-92K Stinger Block I missiles to Brazil, aimed at strengthening air defense and replacing older Igla-S systems. Energy & Trade Shock: A new analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a broader energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial shock that could weigh on global growth through 2027. Amazon & Agribusiness: A study links rising açaí expansion in Pará to a 28% drop in bird diversity, highlighting the risks of monoculture as exports surge. Labor & Compliance: Brazil removed 4,318 children and adolescents from child labor in 2025, with 10,234 enforcement actions—the highest in a decade—plus 1,108 removals in early 2026. Digital Policy: Brazil’s electricity regulator ANEEL appears in international coverage tied to the energy transition push, while the EU and Brazil signed a Digital Partnership to deepen tech cooperation. Renewables & Industry: Hanersun and Solfácil renewed a 400MW module supply deal, extending growth in Brazil’s distributed solar market.

G7 in Evian: France kicks off the 52nd G7 summit with Iran, Ukraine, trade imbalances, critical minerals and AI on the agenda, with Brazil among the invited partners. Energy & trade shock: A new analysis warns the Iran conflict is turning into a wider logistics, fertilizer, food and financial drag that could weigh on growth through 2027. Clean electrification push: A global business survey finds 91% back faster electrification to boost energy security, as leaders gather and grid/policy gaps remain. Amazon monitoring: Brazil’s INPE reports Amazon deforestation alerts at the lowest level since 2014, down sharply year-on-year, though fire risks later in the year still loom. Mining & critical minerals: Resouro’s Tiros rare-earth and titanium PEA in Minas Gerais points to a $1bn-plus post-tax NPV and high returns, reinforcing Brazil’s bid to supply beyond China. Agribusiness & fuel: Coverage highlights the real-world cost tradeoffs of higher ethanol blends (E20 vs E85), as fuel policy debates return. Brazil industry spotlight: Embraer signals renewed focus on India’s civilian and defense aviation demand. World Cup business angle: Brazil’s 1-1 draw vs Morocco at MetLife Stadium spotlights both brand power and tactical gaps as the tournament’s AI-heavy operations ramp up.

Energy & Trade Shock: An analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a long, global drag on energy, shipping, fertilizer and food systems, with normalization possibly taking months or years even after any ceasefire. Global Governance: Brazil’s Lula is set to attend the G7 in Evian as a guest, pushing for development aid as ODA has fallen, while the summit also tackles critical minerals and geopolitical crises. Brazil in Focus (World Cup): Brazil opened its 2026 campaign with a 1-1 draw vs Morocco, with Vinicius Jr. equalizing after Saibari’s opener; Neymar sat out with a grade-2 calf injury. Construction Tech: WakeCap acquired Frontline, an AI planning platform for industrial, energy and infrastructure projects, aiming to connect schedules to job sites and cut duration/cost. Climate & Agriculture: A study highlights heat stress as a growing threat to outdoor farm work and incomes, raising food-security risks. Amazon Watch: New data says Amazon deforestation has dropped to the lowest level since 2014, adding pressure to keep enforcement steady.

Energy & Trade Shock: An analysis warns the US-Iran escalation is turning into a prolonged energy, shipping, fertilizer and food shock that could weigh on the global economy through 2027, even if hostilities ease. World Cup Business Pulse: Brazil’s 1-1 opener vs Morocco at MetLife Stadium drew huge demand and spotlighted tactical questions, while fan festivals and bars across the US reported strong match-day sales lift (with some hospitality owners still cautious). Brazil on the Pitch: Morocco exposed gaps in Brazil’s press and midfield control, leaving Carlo Ancelotti facing early scrutiny as Vinícius Jr. salvaged parity. Climate Finance Pressure: Bonn climate talks are framed as a test of whether COP30 momentum from Brazil can translate into real funding—especially for adaptation and “just transition” costs. Aviation Costs: IATA-linked reporting highlights how fuel and operating expenses are squeezing airline margins, raising pressure on expansion plans.

Energy & Trade Shock: An analysis warns the Iran war’s ripple effects are now hitting energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and finance for months (or years), with global growth near 2.8–3.1% through 2027. Climate Risk for Industry: El Niño is officially underway, and experts fear major economic losses from disrupted agriculture and supply chains. Blue-Carbon Push in Brazil: Brazil’s mangroves and other coastal ecosystems are highlighted as a key part of the climate agenda, supporting biodiversity and coastal protection. Urban Heat Adaptation: Cities are moving to cool down as heat islands intensify health and infrastructure risks, with Brazil’s Teresina cited. Crypto Payments Going Mainstream: Kripicard says crypto payment cards are shifting from speculation to everyday spending as merchant acceptance and reliability improve. Brazil Auto & Ethanol Flex: Hyundai debuted the next-gen i20 for Brazil, designed for ethanol-blended petrol (E30) and targeting local demand. Health & Pharma Access: Dr. Reddy’s launched a first-to-market Bosutinib 400mg generic in the US, expanding oncology access. Agriculture Policy at BRICS: BRICS agriculture ministers in Indore focus on food security and small-farmer empowerment.

EV Charging Push: A new C40 Cities/IFC report maps how Brazil can scale public EV chargers and speed electric mobility, estimating about $3.8B in infrastructure needs across Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and India through 2035. Delivery Economy Boost: Brazil launched a subsidized motorcycle credit line for app-based delivery drivers, with Caixa and Banco do Brasil offering rates around 11.5%–12.5% and a target of up to R$2.5B in new loans. Pharma Compliance Win: Concord Biotech said an ANVISA inspection at its Limbasi API plant (June 8–12) was completed successfully, supporting its push to expand access to Brazil’s large pharma market. Agri-Commodity Watch: Coffee prices rose again as persistent rain threatens Brazil’s harvest timing, while sugar traded softer on macro pressure but still faces weather-driven supply concerns. Security & Trade Context: US officials said a strike in Venezuela killed a leader of the Tren de Aragua gang, underscoring how regional instability can spill into logistics and commodity flows.

Food & Inflation Watch: Brazil’s May inflation eased to 0.58% month-on-month, but food prices drove half the increase, keeping the 12-month rate at 4.72% above the government’s tolerance band—another reminder that household budgets are still under pressure. Energy-to-Food Pressure: With oil prices near $100 a barrel after Iran-related supply disruptions, experts warn biofuel demand could surge, tightening the link between fuel policy and food costs as countries including Brazil expand blending mandates. Amazon Fund Momentum: Brazil’s Amazon Fund says it has quadrupled its annual project approval rate since 2023, approving 153 projects and channeling donations of BRL 5.3 billion toward deforestation prevention and restoration. Digital Trade & Sovereignty: The EU and Brazil signed a Digital Partnership in Brasília covering data governance, AI, digital infrastructure, connectivity, and online platforms—aimed at reducing tech dependence and boosting cooperation. Agri-Inputs Supply: Brazil is looking to Guyana as a fertiliser source, after noting it imports most fertiliser used in agriculture—an effort to reduce vulnerability in a volatile global inputs market. Aviation & Security: The U.S. approved a possible $330m sale of FIM-92K Stinger missiles to Brazil, strengthening mobile air defense for remote border regions.

Biofuels & Food Prices: A surge in oil prices is pushing governments to expand ethanol blending, with Transport & Environment warning demand could jump sharply by 2030—raising fresh food-cost concerns as fertilizer constraints bite. Shipping Decarbonization: Maersk and Vale are trialing ethanol as a marine fuel, betting on incremental use to diversify away from volatile fossil supplies. Port & Logistics Tech: Tecon Suape is investing in a new container scanner to boost port security and operational efficiency. Aviation & Defense: Embraer says it will deliver its first KC-390 to South Korea this year and is focusing engineering on KC-390 and the A-29, with no plans for a new fighter platform. Agribusiness & Trade: Corn market updates point to Brazil production rising in USDA/CONAB data, while global supply expectations keep pressure on prices. Energy Storage: Fox ESS signed a 5GWh battery energy storage supply agreement with Solar Juice in Australia, reflecting continued momentum in renewables-linked storage. Industrial Policy & Multilateralism: Brazil-backed global calls for stronger multilateral cooperation highlight how conflicts and uncertainty hit developing economies hardest.

Biofuels & Food Prices: With oil near $100 a barrel after the Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruption, a T&E forecast says biofuel demand could jump sharply—pushing more ethanol blending in countries including Brazil and raising fresh food-crisis concerns as fertilizer constraints also bite. Amazon Policy & Trade: Brazil says Amazon deforestation fell 61.4% in May vs. last year, challenging U.S. tariff claims tied to illegal clearing. Agribusiness Outlook: CONAB lifted its corn outlook to 140.5 million tons and kept soybeans near a record 180.3 million tons, setting up tighter global competition. Animal Nutrition Investment: ADM opened a premix/feed additives plant in Apucarana (Paraná) with ~40,000 tons/year capacity, betting on traceability and automation for Brazil’s protein supply chain. Mining Update: Jangada reported new gold drilling results at Paranaíta, supporting potential expansion beyond its existing resource base. Aviation Industry: At the IATA AGM in Rio, KLM flagged A350 freighter delays (pushing deliveries into 2027) as it tries to phase out older aircraft under Schiphol noise limits. BRICS AI for Development: India’s science academies led a BRICS virtual push to use AI as a practical tool for health, agriculture, education and climate modeling, with emphasis on shared infrastructure and open, multilingual models. World Cup Meets Industry: As the tournament kicks off, Flutter expects strong customer additions and expands prediction markets—while Brazil’s broader World Cup economy narrative stays tied to logistics, visas, and consumer spending. Crime & Shipping Routes: Brazil’s Federal Police launched Operation Balkans to target a transnational cocaine network moving drugs from South America to Europe via sea routes, with asset freezes up to BRL 20 million.

Biofuels & Food Prices: Rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict are pushing governments to expand ethanol blending, with forecasts warning biofuel demand could surge and intensify food-price pressure as fertilizer supply stays strained. Aviation Headwinds: IATA’s Rio meeting highlights fuel-cost shock and operational strain, with airline profits projected to halve in 2026—an issue that will ripple through Brazil’s aviation capacity planning. Beef Trade & Labeling: Brazil-linked EU meat access and origin-label rules are back in focus, as calls grow for stricter country-of-origin labeling for ready meals and as beef prices face demand softness. Mining & Critical Minerals: Axel REE appoints Dr. Patience Mpofu to lead rare-earth development, while Vale’s iron ore push and Chinese steel demand stability keep Brazil’s bulk exports in the spotlight. Petrobras Offshore Expansion: Petrobras and Equinor expand Campos Basin partnership, signaling continued investment momentum in Brazil’s offshore production. World Cup Industrial Angle: FIFA’s 2026 rollout keeps driving logistics, broadcasting and fan-economy spend across host cities, with Brazil repeatedly showing up in the tournament’s commercial and supply-chain orbit.

Data Centers & Renewables in Ceará: Voltalia secured a 322MW grid capacity deal with Brazil’s ONS for data center power at the Pecém complex in Ceará, with plans for dedicated wind generation to serve “decarbonized” demand. Oil & Gas Dealmaking: Petrobras agreed to buy a 50% stake in Equinor’s Itaimbezinho exploration block in Brazil’s Campos Basin, keeping Equinor as operator, with CADE/ANP approvals pending. Mining & Materials: Stakeholder Gold’s VMC will purchase and operate a 50% interest in a licensed quarry in Uruoca, Ceará, producing premium “Taj Mahal” quartzite with pre-orders already in hand. Aviation Tech for Brazil: STMicroelectronics expanded certifications for its ST87M01 NB-IoT module platform, adding North America and Brazil approvals. World Cup Commercialization (Brazil angle): FIFA’s mandatory hydration breaks are set to create new ad inventory for broadcasters, with Reuters noting potential “Super Bowl-level” pricing—while Brazil’s matches are part of the global media push. Health Tech in Brazil: Nexalin’s trial at Hospital das Clínicas, University of São Paulo reported durable improvements for anxiety/insomnia using its non-invasive DIFS protocol.

Agri-innovation & Tech Transfer: Brazil and Guyana signed an agreement to create a Caribbean Sustainable Agriculture Science, Technology and Innovation hub, with EMBRAPA and IICA, aiming to scale tropical agri-tech and boost food security and resilience. Aviation & Manufacturing: Embraer said it expects 80–85 commercial jet deliveries in 2026, citing faster production and improving Pratt & Whitney GTF availability. Airline Connectivity: United completed Starlink prototype installation on its first 777-200ER at Rio’s Galeão, with certification and test flights ahead. Trade & Finance: China and Brazil pledged deeper financial cooperation, including local-currency account support and expanded yuan/real trading discussions. Food & Livestock Supply Chains: Brazil’s chicken exports hit record levels, while China recognized Brazil as foot-and-mouth free, supporting pork trade. Energy & Logistics: Jet fuel output and exports are rising amid Middle East disruption, reshaping global fuel flows and supply planning.

Aviation Safety: IATA launched “Save a life, not a bag” urging passengers to leave cabin baggage behind during evacuations, after videos showed people risking safety to retrieve overhead luggage. Export Finance: Brazil’s Plano Brasil Soberano rules kicked in Monday, cutting the revenue-loss threshold for exporters and tariff-affected suppliers from 5% to 1%, expanding credit access for sectors like steel, copper, aluminum, automotive and furniture. Agri-Industry Compliance: Mato Grosso pledged to phase out native firewood from deforested forests in power boilers used by agro-industrial plants (including corn ethanol) by 2034, with intermediate caps starting now and legality proof requirements. Food Trade Pressure: A former EU food safety chief backed an MEP’s claim that Brazil won’t meet the EU/Irish beef safety deadline for restoring access from Sept. 3, 2026. Digital Infrastructure & Work: Aligned Data Centers earned Great Place To Work certification in Brazil and other countries for a second straight year, highlighting hiring and training for data-center talent. Energy & Aviation Costs: IATA warned airline profits could be cut nearly in half in 2026 as jet fuel costs surge amid Middle East disruptions.

Aviation Fuel Shock: IATA says jet fuel prices are set to jump about 70% in 2026, pushing global airline profits to roughly half to $23bn and making fare increases “inevitable,” with the Middle East conflict and Hormuz risk driving the bill. Airline Operations in Brazil: At the IATA AGM in Rio, Cathay Pacific’s CEO said the group is holding capacity and network despite higher fuel costs, while LATAM Brasil reported engine-related groundings still biting. Engine Dispute: Italy’s ITA Airways said it will decide within 6–8 weeks whether to sue RTX/Pratt & Whitney over engine faults that have grounded a large share of its A320neo fleet. SAF Push: IATA highlighted Brazil’s potential to become a SAF leader, but warned sustainable aviation fuel supply remains far below what net-zero plans require. Energy Storage Deal: EVE Energy announced 67GWh+ in major orders at SNEC 2026, extending momentum in large-scale battery storage. Food Security Agenda: BRICS agriculture ministers meet in Indore to focus on food security, smart farming and farmer welfare, with Brazil included.

Aviation & Decarbonization: At the IATA 82nd AGM in Rio, IATA said Brazil has the conditions to scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), citing large biomass potential and 15 SAF projects in development, but warned the global SAF shortage is still severe and could leave airlines exposed to compliance penalties. Airline Profit Pressure: IATA also reiterated that the Middle East fuel shock is set to halve airline profitability in 2026, with jet fuel prices up sharply and net profits forecast falling to about $23bn. Agri-Food Costs: In São Paulo, chicken prices hit a five-month high as corn and soybean meal costs eased, improving producer margins. Nutrition & Supply Chain Angle: A new nutrition piece highlights magnesium-rich foods (like rice bran and blackstrap molasses), underscoring how agricultural inputs and processing affect public health. Policy & Trade: A Reuters report says the EU wants a tighter, more strategic COP31 climate negotiating stance after COP30 in Brazil stalled on key priorities. Regional Agriculture Diplomacy: India will host a BRICS Agriculture Summit in Indore focused on food security, farmer welfare, and climate-smart farming.